Weather Latest: AEMET Special Advisory 20/2024

The state meteorological agency AEMET has issued an updated special notice for the potential for severe weather in our region.

STATE METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY
Special Notice of Adverse Phenomena Number 20/14
Issued at 15:15 on Wednesday 13th November 2024

Meteorological Phenomenon: Very strong to torrential rains and showers
Geographical Area: Mediterranean and Western Andalusian coasts
Beginning of the Situation: Tuesday 12th November 2024
Duration: At least until Friday 15th November 2024
Probability Level: Very high (greater than 70%)

Description of Meteorological Situation

The DANA (Isolated Depression at High Levels) is expected to continue its movement today, Wednesday, and will be situated around the southwest of the Peninsula at the end of the day. This will mark the beginning of the peak period of this episode, with the entry of a very humid Mediterranean air from the east continuing, so it is very likely that there will be very strong and persistent rainfall, locally torrential, accompanied by storms and maritime storms on the Mediterranean coast; and, from Thursday onwards, also in western Andalusia. The rainfall will probably also affect, although with less intensity, other areas of the centre and southwest of the Peninsula, with snow at high altitudes in the mountain systems. There is still uncertainty regarding the position of the DANA and, therefore, the distribution and amount of rainfall.

Today, Wednesday 13th, very heavy rainfall is expected, with the probability of being locally torrential and persistent, in several areas of the Mediterranean area, mainly in Malaga, Granada, north of Castellón and south of Tarragona; and from tonight onwards also on the coast of Valencia. In these areas up to 180 mm could accumulate. In the rest of the Mediterranean area, more moderate amounts are expected, around 80 mm/24 h.

On the other hand, it is not ruled out that significant accumulations will occur on the southern slopes of the Sistema Central mountains and other areas of Andalusia. The precipitation will initially be in the form of snow in the mountains, although the altitude will gradually rise throughout the day, with snowfall restricted to high areas. Very strong gusts of wind will continue on the Mediterranean and Galician coasts, as well as at high altitudes in mountain areas in the northwest quadrant, the Sistema Central mountains and eastern Andalusia. Maximum temperatures will drop today generally across the country, this drop being notable in a large part of the southern half of the peninsula.

On Thursday 14th, the DANA will continue to move slowly towards the southwest while inducing a marked process of cyclogenesis on the surface, thus making its transition towards a BFA (Isolated Cold Low) and increasing instability towards western Andalusia. During this day, the heaviest rainfall is expected during the first half of the day in Malaga and on the coast of Valencia. In this last area, it could exceed 150 mm in a few hours. On the other hand, on the coasts of western Andalusia and around the Strait, accumulated rainfall is expected that could be around 80-100 mm throughout the day. Precipitation is also expected in other areas of the Mediterranean area and the centre and south-west quadrant of the peninsula, but of lesser intensity. Temperatures will experience a progressive recovery, with a moderate and general rise, becoming locally notable on Thursday.

On Friday 15th, the BFA will tend to remain quasi-stationary in the southwest of the Peninsula, with the highest probability of precipitation expected on this day around the southwestern quadrant, mainly in the western end of Andalusia, where it is not ruled out that the showers will be locally very strong. On the Mediterranean side, although there could still be some precipitation, this would be much weaker and more dispersed.

From Saturday onwards, the most likely scenario shows that rainfall would be restricted mainly to the western end of the peninsula, while gradually losing intensity, ending this episode.

Unless there are significant changes in the expected evolution, AEMET will not issue a new special warning. A detailed and updated monitoring of this situation is recommended through its predictions and warnings of adverse meteorological phenomena at www.aemet.es.