Weather Latest: AEMET Special Advisory 19/2024

The state meteorological agency AEMET has issued updated special notice for severe weather between today and Friday.

STATE METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY
Special Notice of Adverse Phenomena Number 19/14
Issued at 12:48 on Tuesday 12th November 2024

Meteorological Phenomenon: Very strong to torrential rains and showers
Geographical Area: Mediterranean and Western Andalusian coasts
Beginning of the Situation: Tuesday 12th November 2024
Duration: At least until Friday 15th November 2024
Probability Level: Very high (greater than 70%)

Description of Meteorological Situation

It is expected that during today, Tuesday, a DANA (Isolated Depression at High Levels) will move from France towards the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, moving from northeast to southwest and remaining in our environment, at least until Friday 15th. The increase in instability will be accompanied by the entry of a humid Mediterranean winds from the east, so it is very likely that very strong and persistent precipitations will occur, locally torrential, accompanied by storms and maritime storms in the Balearic Islands and the Mediterranean coastal areas; and, from Thursday also in western Andalusia. The precipitations will probably also affect, although with less intensity, other areas of the centre and southwest of the peninsula and the Cantabrian area, with snow in the mountain systems. There is still uncertainty regarding the position of the low and, therefore, the distribution and amount of precipitations.

The rainfall in the Mediterranean area will intensify during today, Tuesday, with greater probability in the south of the Balearic archipelago, being especially intense in Pitiusas and Mallorca. In these areas, it is likely to be locally very strong and persistent, extending until the first half of the following day, with accumulations of up to 150 mm/24 h. The showers will also intensify in other points of the Mediterranean coast, between Barcelona and Almería, being more probable on the northern coast of Castellón, the southern coast of Tarragona and areas close to the coast of Murcia, as well as in the last hours on the southern coasts of Valencia and the north of Alicante, where very strong intensities could be reached.

In the Cantabrian Sea and the northern Pyrenees, precipitation is likely, with snow in mountain areas, with the altitude dropping to around 1000 m. In addition, very strong gusts of wind are expected at high altitudes in the mountain systems of the northern half, with a northerly cold wind in the Ebro valley and a northerly wind in Ampurdán (Catalonia), which will lead to coastal storms.

On Wednesday, very heavy rainfall is expected, with the probability of being locally torrential and persistent, in several areas of the Mediterranean area, mainly Malaga, north of Alicante, south of Valencia, north of Castellón and south of Tarragona; and from the afternoon onwards also on the northern coast of Valencia. In these areas, accumulations of around 150 mm/24h are likely. In the rest of the Mediterranean area, more moderate amounts are expected, around 80 mm/24h.

On the other hand, significant accumulations are not ruled out on the southern slopes of the Sistema Central (mountain range). Initially, precipitation will be in the form of snow in the mountainous systems, although altitudes will gradually rise, with snowfall restricted to high areas. Very strong gusts of wind will continue on the Mediterranean and Galician coasts, as well as at high altitudes in mountainous areas in the northwest quadrant, the Sistema Central and eastern Andalusia. Temperatures will tend to recover during the second half of the day.

Despite the considerable uncertainty for Thursday, the most likely scenario places the DANA in the southwest of the Peninsula, which would extend the instability towards western Andalusia. For this day, the heaviest rainfall is expected again on the coast of Valencia and Malaga, with amounts of around 100-150 mm and also on the coasts of western Andalusia and around the Strait, with accumulations of around 80-100 mm. Precipitation is also expected in other areas of the Mediterranean area and the centre and southwest quadrant of the peninsula, but of lesser intensity. Temperatures will experience a progressive recovery, with a moderate and generalised rise, becoming locally notable on Thursday. With even more uncertainty, it is expected that on Friday the rainfall will continue in areas of the Mediterranean area, but less intense and with a more dispersed character. On this day, the greatest probability of precipitation will be in the southwestern quadrant, mainly to the coasts of western Andalusia where the showers could be very strong. As of Saturday, the most likely scenario shows a move away from the DANA towards the Atlantic, with the consequent decrease in the probability and intensity of rainfall, thus ending this episode.

AEMET will update this information tomorrow (Wednesday) and recommends detailed and up-to-date monitoring of this situation through its predictions and warnings of adverse weather phenomena at www.aemet.es.