AEMET Weather Warning: Potential for heavy rain and storms over the weekend

The arrival of September brings about a change in the weather with the development of an abnormally powerful and deep isolated high altitude depression, known as a ‘DANA’ or ‘gota fría’, over the south-west of the Iberian peninsula which has the potential to bring some heavy rain and thunderstorms to much of the country over the coming weekend.

The very mention of the word ‘gota fría’ can often cause unnecessary concern amongst the populace as it is often used as a synonym with torrential rains and catastrophic flooding. But, in addition to the pocketing of cold air, there needs to be a series of circumstances occurring at the same time and, more often than not, there are other atmospheric conditions that can cause very intense downpours without the presence of a DANA. So, whilst caution is always recommended, it should be remembered that a ‘gota fría’ doesn’t always mean heavy rain and floods.

That said, the development of a DANA can be extremely erratic which makes accurate forecasting of the conditions that it is likely to bring very difficult to achieve until the last moment. Any slight variation in the position of the centre of the depression can drastically change the forecast. For our region to receive torrential rains, the centre would need to be positioned over the Gulf of Cadíz and the Strait of Gibraltar; right now, it seems that it will be located a little further west so the modelling suggests that our region is likely to receive some moderate rainfall over the weekend, which could be locally intense and accompanied by thunderstorms, but nothing extraordinary for this time of year. However, things can change and it is always best to be prepared.

YELLOW WEATHER WARNING ISSUED

The state meteorological agency AEMET has decided to err on the side of caution and has issued a number of weather warnings for this coming weekend, including a YELLOW alert for our region which is valid from midnight tonight Friday 1st September until 3.00pm on the afternoon of Sunday 3rd September. This level of alert is issued when it is likely that the weather will cause some low level impact, including some disruption to travel in a few places, but most people will be able to continue going about their daily routine.

Thus, AEMET forecasts that, at any point between midnight tonight and Sunday afternoon, there is a 40%-70% probability of intense rainfall with accumulations of up to 30mm in one hour which could be accompanied by storms that could bring hail and strong gusts of wind at times.

The issue of this warning doesn’t mean that these severe conditions will definitely affect us; they could be locally intense in some places but not affect other places just a few kilometres away. Indeed, Toni Bolufer, the local weather expert at MeteoXÀBIA, has suggested in today’s daily forecast that it is likely that the heavier downpours will affect the interior and northern areas of the Comunidad Valenciana more than Xàbia directly. However, the forecasts do suggest that there is a risk that they may happen and that the population should be aware and make the necessary preparations (see below).

BE PREPARED

If you have time, check your drainage system as guttering can often become blocked by leaves and other debris, especially over the recent summer months when we have had very little rain.

It’s also worth checking the seals around doors and windows. Silicon can degrade over time, especially in the high temperatures that are often experienced here in Spain.

Don’t forget to bring in cushions and stack chairs and sunbeds safely in a corner. Intense downpours can often be accompanied by strong gusts of wind so it’s best to be prepared rather than spend time searching for cushions, etc. across the local neighbourhood.

If you live in a low-lying area or a zone which is prone to flooding, you should always consider the worst-case scenario. It is good advice to prepare a flood plan with a list of useful contact numbers (local council, utility providers, insurance company) as well as an emergency flood kit which should contain emergency cash and credit cards, medication and prescriptions, insurance documents and other important paperwork. It is always a good idea of getting in the habit of keeping important documents or sentimental items off the floor and consider storing in a waterproof container.